“Demographic Winter” the Movie

by Scott Moody on January 2, 2012

in Tax & Spend

As I pointed out in my last blog citing the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Maine’s net natural population increase (births minus deaths) was a mere 180 people. A simple projection of the past 20 years worth of data suggests that next year could be the first year of net negative natural population growth in Maine. Demographers have a new term for this which I’ve mentioned before . . . “Demographic Winter.”

In a nutshell, Demographic Winter is when there are too few young people, or at least having too few babies, to sustain the current level of population. Maine appears headed for such a scenario, barring a huge influx of fertile domestic or international migrants. This will create a strong headwind for future economic growth.

I recently became aware that the movie titled “Demographic Winter” has been posted on YouTube in its entirety. It runs for about 50 minutes, but I promise it is worth the trip . . . check it out. Though I wouldn’t advice watching it while eating your lunch :-)

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  • Anonymous

    I’d be interested to know what you would suggest to alleviate this situation in Maine. I’ve seen nothing from Governor LePage that would encourage young people to stay in, let alone come to, the state.

  • http://twitter.com/ASFried Amy Fried

    Jim Tierney gave a great lecture back in 2002 arguing that Maine needed to diversify or it would suffer just this fate — an aging population and difficulty keeping and attracting young people. I think he nailed it.

    See http://honors.umaine.edu/traditions/tiaa-cref-distinguished-honors-graduate-lecture/diversity-in-maine-an-opportunity/

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